Strategic Estimate: Future Threat Potential of the Arakan Army to Bangladesh
Reading Time: 3 minutes1. Executive Summary The Arakan Army (AA) currently poses no significant military threat to Bangladesh. Its structural limitations, political objectives, and external dependencies mitigate any future hostile posture. However, political frictions could emerge related to refugee repatriation and cross-border governance issues. Bangladesh must maintain strong military readiness, initiate structured engagement Continue Reading
Quiet Diplomacy: Bangladesh’s Emerging Role in the Future of Rakhine State
Reading Time: 2 minutesIn recent months, Bangladesh has moved quietly but decisively to shape the future of neighbouring Rakhine State, as the Myanmar junta weakens and local forces gain ascendancy. With the Arakan Army (AA) now controlling over 90% of Rakhine territory and poised to declare independence, Dhaka is positioning itself to secure Continue Reading
Operational Capability Degradation – Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw)
Reading Time: 2 minutesAs of early 2025, the Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw) are experiencing significant degradation in their operational effectiveness across nearly all regions of the country. This deterioration is the result of sustained offensives by ethnic armed organisations (EAOs), widespread resistance by the National Unity Government (NUG)-aligned People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), mass Continue Reading
Threat Matrix: Arakan Army (AA) vs. Bangladesh National Security
Reading Time: 3 minutesAssessment Date: April 2025Compiled for: MoD, DGFI, BGB, Armed Forces DivisionClassification: RESTRICTED (For Internal Military Planning) 🧠Strategic Context The Arakan Army has grown from a regional insurgent force into a proto-state actor with an expanding area of influence across northern Rakhine and the Paletwa corridor, directly bordering southeastern Bangladesh Continue Reading
Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) increases vigilance along Indian and Myanmar borders
Reading Time: < 1 minuteThe Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) has increased vigilance along the frontier with India and Myanmar due to increased negative security activity. Since July-August revolution in Bangladesh, the Government of India has strengthened border security, which led to an unusually increased presence of Border Security Force (BSF). Several Bangladeshi nationals have Continue Reading