Key Highlights
- Chattogram police authorised to engage armed terrorists with shoot-on-sight SMG patrols, marking a historic escalation in urban security operations.
- Arson, bombings, and attacks on public transport surge across Dhaka, Chattogram, and other major cities; civilians face unprecedented risk.
- Arrests link perpetrators to politically affiliated networks; investigations reveal signs of organised destabilisation under external influence.
- Intelligence indicates escalation from political agitation and disinformation campaigns by Awami League to coordinated hybrid warfare, blending kinetic attacks and cognitive operations.
- Critical infrastructure, including airports, judicial offices, and transport networks, remain under heightened threat.
- Law enforcement mobilisation is intensive, yet the operational tempo of attacks continues to challenge conventional capacity.
National Security Situation Overview: Threat of 13 November Attacks
Bangladesh faces an unprecedented surge in urban violence, with credible intelligence indicating that the Awami League and its subordinate organisations are orchestrating a coordinated campaign of terror across major cities. This campaign is not spontaneous, but meticulously planned under the direction of senior leadership currently operating from across the border.
Sources confirm that Awami League leader Jahangir Kabir Nanak, presently in hiding in India, issued a specific threat to escalate violence in Dhaka, Chattogram, and other urban centres on 13 November. Intelligence indicates that this threat is being operationalised through a network of political and youth organisations, including the Bangladesh Chhatra League and Jubo League, which have already been linked to multiple attacks in recent days.
The strategy reflects a deliberate effort to destabilise Bangladesh, combining physical attacks, arson, sabotage, and orchestrated disinformation campaigns to create public panic, disrupt governance, and challenge state authority. Analysts have identified a pattern of escalation, moving from prior information warfare campaigns to overt acts of urban terrorism, signalling a new operational phase in the Awami League’s destabilisation efforts.
Government and law enforcement authorities have treated these threats with the utmost seriousness. SMG-equipped patrols, increased checkpoints, and heightened airport and transport security have been implemented in preparation for potential high-intensity operations on 13 November. The rapid mobilisation demonstrates that while the threat is acute, Bangladesh remains resolute and operationally prepared to counter any attacks orchestrated by the Awami League terror networks.
This latest intelligence underscores the heightened national security risk and confirms that the ongoing wave of violence is politically driven, centrally coordinated, and externally supported, representing a clear challenge to Bangladesh’s internal stability.
Chattogram Escalation: SMG Shoot-on-Sight Directive
The epicentre of this intensifying threat has been Chattogram, Bangladesh’s primary port city. In a decisive response, Chattogram Metropolitan Police Commissioner Hasib Aziz issued a directive on 11 November authorising patrol units to engage armed criminals with submachine guns (SMGs) on sight.
This unprecedented measure marks a historic shift in urban policing doctrine. Conventional patrol weapons, including shotguns and rifles, have been withdrawn, replaced by SMGs for rapid-response “brushfire” operations. CMP officials noted that the directive was motivated by repeated daylight attacks, including the killing of Sarowar Hossain Babla during a public political event, which also injured a political candidate.
Commissioner Aziz emphasised that officers are acting fully within their legal rights of self-defence and that he assumes personal accountability for this operational shift. The underlying message is unambiguous: Chattogram’s streets are now active theatres of armed confrontation, and police patrols are authorised to neutralise armed threats immediately.
“Our officers have been authorised to engage armed offenders immediately. These measures are necessary to protect civilians and restore order.” – CMP Commissioner Hasib Aziz
The operational impact of this directive is profound. SMG patrols have transformed urban policing from static checkpoint enforcement to high-mobility, aggressive interdiction units, capable of rapid engagement across the city. Observers warn that while this may deter opportunistic criminals, it also signifies a recognition of urban violence approaching paramilitary intensity.
Dhaka Under Siege: A City in Crisis
Dhaka, the nation’s capital, mirrors the crisis in Chattogram. Multiple coordinated attacks over the past week indicate that urban violence is systemic and escalating. On 11 November, a crude bomb exploded in front of the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) office in Dhanmondi. Although no casualties occurred, the incident demonstrates the symbolic targeting of state institutions — a hallmark of coordinated destabilisation.
At the same time, two individuals linked to political youth networks were detained attempting a flash procession in Dhanmondi 27. Investigations revealed that both detainees hold leadership positions in local chapters of politically affiliated organisations, highlighting the interplay between political mobilisation and violent urban operations.
Arson attacks on public transport in Dhaka further compound the crisis. A bus of Malancha Paribahan was set ablaze near Sutrapur Fire Station on 11 November, while nine vehicles were targeted across Dhaka in just 48 hours. Fire services have responded swiftly, but analysts warn that the operational burden on emergency services is rapidly increasing.
The Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh (CAAB) has issued nationwide alerts, directing all airports to maintain round-the-clock surveillance, increase patrol activities, and reinforce fire safety. This directive follows a recent cargo fire at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport, signalling recognition of critical infrastructure vulnerability to coordinated attacks.
Emerging Pattern of Organised Violence
Investigations indicate that a significant proportion of arrested suspects are linked to Awami League affiliated networks, including banned terror organisations such as the Bangladesh Chatra League (BCL). Arrest records and field intelligence reveal premeditation, coordination, and operational timing, suggesting deliberate strategy rather than opportunistic crime.
Digital and social media analysis also indicates concurrent disinformation campaigns, amplifying fear, confusion, and public anxiety. These hybrid operations, combining physical attacks with cognitive and psychological manipulation, exemplify modern urban destabilisation doctrine.
The pattern shows a clear trajectory: what began as sporadic political unrest has evolved into an organised destabilisation campaign, systematically threatening civic order, public safety, and state legitimacy. Analysts highlight the risks of operational escalation if proactive intelligence and security measures are insufficient.
“This is no longer simple street violence. These are coordinated campaigns exploiting both physical and information environments to destabilise the nation.” – Khaled Ahmed, BDMilitary’s Senior Intelligence Analyst
Strategic Implications
Bangladesh now faces a multidimensional threat environment, where urban violence, Awami League affiliated networks, and hybrid destabilisation tactics intersect. Arrests and field reports indicate that urban violence is strategically planned, with clear operational objectives: instil fear, disrupt governance, and challenge state authority.
The convergence of physical attacks, sabotage, and psychological operations has created a hybrid warfare environment, where civilians, transport infrastructure, and national institutions are under continuous threat. Analysts warn that failure to contain this threat could:
- Undermine public confidence in state institutions.
- Disrupt critical transport and airport operations.
- Stretch law enforcement and emergency services beyond sustainable capacity.
- Escalate political tension, creating space for further destabilisation campaigns.
These developments have profound strategic consequences. Urban centres, transport nodes, and public institutions are now operationally vulnerable. The government’s immediate response — SMG-equipped patrols, increased checkpoints, and heightened airport security — is necessary, yet may be insufficient if attacks maintain or accelerate their operational tempo.
The threat environment has shifted from episodic unrest to systemic urban destabilisation, signalling a national security inflection point. Analysts underscore that the country must now adopt multi-domain countermeasures, integrating law enforcement, intelligence, emergency response, and information control to prevent escalation.
Regional and International Dimensions
Bangladesh’s strategic geography amplifies the consequences of internal unrest. Analysts note that external influence vectors are increasingly evident, including coordinated messaging and social media amplification from foreign-linked networks. These efforts appear to reinforce local actors engaged in violent urban operations, suggesting transnational hybrid interference.
The operational pattern aligns with hybrid assault doctrine: simultaneous physical, cognitive, and symbolic attacks designed to paralyse governance and create strategic confusion. Security experts emphasise that internal security is inseparable from regional strategic considerations, and failure to address hybrid threats may compromise national resilience and regional deterrence.
Operational Responses and Security Realignment
In response, the government has implemented rapid countermeasures:
- Deployment of SMG-equipped patrol units in high-risk zones.
- Expansion of permanent checkpoints and rapid-response teams in urban centres.
- Heightened surveillance and fire safety readiness at airports and transport hubs.
- Strengthened coordination between NSI, DGFI, police intelligence, and local law enforcement for unified threat response.
- Continuous monitoring of political networks and youth organisations involved in destabilisation efforts.
While substantial, analysts caution that these measures may be insufficient if the operational tempo of attacks increases. Effective mitigation requires an integrated framework combining intelligence, law enforcement, emergency response, and information management.
Civilian and Societal Impact
The ongoing urban violence has immediate and long-term consequences for civilians. Daily commuting, public gatherings, and commercial activity are increasingly hazardous. Fire services, police, and emergency responders are stretched, heightening the risk of delayed response to accidents or secondary incidents.
Societal anxiety and fear are rising, with public confidence in law enforcement tested to its limits. Analysts warn that persistent insecurity could polarise communities, embolden militant networks, and create fertile ground for further hybrid destabilisation campaigns.
Civic life is disrupted, with citizens forced to alter routines, avoid public areas, and contend with the psychological burden of constant threat. The cumulative effect threatens to erode societal cohesion, particularly in urban centres where both political tension and criminal opportunism intersect.
Navigating a National Security Inflection Point
Bangladesh is at a critical strategic crossroads. Urban violence, politically affiliated networks, and hybrid destabilisation tactics have converged into a high-intensity national security crisis ahead of the February 2026 elections in Bangladesh.
Immediate countermeasures, including SMG patrols, increased checkpoints, and airport security alerts, reflect recognition of the threat’s severity. However, long-term stability demands comprehensive, multi-domain countermeasures that integrate kinetic, intelligence, and information operations.
The stakes are high: failure to contain these threats risks escalating isolated violence into a national security emergency capable of undermining governance, civic confidence, and regional stability. The country must act decisively, with vigilance, coordination, and strategic foresight, to restore security and prevent further escalation.
