India’s Geopolitical Catch-22 and the Emerging Opportunities for Bangladesh

Reading Time: 3 minutes The latest tariff clash between Washington and New Delhi exposes a dilemma India can no longer evade. For more than two years, India has been the single largest beneficiary of discounted Russian oil, cushioning inflationary shocks while sustaining rapid industrial growth. But in doing so, India has tethered itself more tightly to Moscow at the very moment the West seeks to isolate the Kremlin. This is India’s Catch-22. On one hand, it cannot walk away from Russian energy without harming its economy. On the other, its dependence places it in direct collision with the United States, its most important strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. Dependency masked as autonomy India presents its Russia policy as “strategic autonomy.” In practice, nearly 38–40% of India’s oil imports now come from Russia, up from less than 2% before February 2022. Refiners have built margins on Moscow’s discounts, while the state