Counterpoint: Misreading Realities – A Rebuttal to the International Crisis Group’s Analysis on Rohingya Insurgency Risks

Reading Time: 5 minutes As of mid-2025, nearly one million Rohingya refugees remain confined to overcrowded, restricted camps in southeastern Bangladesh. Years after the brutal ethnic cleansing operations launched by Myanmar’s Tatmadaw in 2017, repatriation efforts remain frozen, justice mechanisms are slow-moving, and international pressure on Naypyidaw is virtually non-existent. Against this backdrop, the International Crisis Group (ICG) published a report titled “Bangladesh/Myanmar: The Dangers of a Rohingya Insurgency”. While the report correctly highlights the rising despair and risks of radicalisation, its framing is analytically flawed, its recommendations underdeveloped, and its understanding of regional security architecture superficial. This rebuttal by BDMilitary.com aims to correct those misconceptions, re-centre the debate on Myanmar’s culpability, and provide an evidence-based counter analysis for policymakers, security professionals, and humanitarian actors. Bangladesh: Absorbing a Crisis It Did Not Create The ICG report tends to downplay the foundational truth of the crisis: Myanmar’s military orchestrated systematic violence,

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