The Philippines Cannot Sustain a Chinese Attack – No Matter How Much It Modernises

Reading Time: 4 minutes Despite a decade of defence reforms and modernisation, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) remains fundamentally ill-equipped to resist a sustained military assault by China. From firepower and geography to logistics and strategy, the asymmetry between the two nations is so severe that no amount of modernisation short of external intervention can tip the balance in Manila’s favour. A detailed analysis of military capabilities, regional infrastructure, and operational readiness suggests that while the AFP has improved tactically, it lacks the structural capacity to withstand a peer-level conflict. China’s overwhelming dominance in airpower, naval reach, missile systems, and surveillance capabilities ensures that the Philippines, left to its own devices, could at best delay aggression not repel it. A Force Outmatched in Every Domain With just over 140,000 active personnel, the AFP remains primarily oriented towards internal security operations, counter-insurgency, and civil defence. Its air force flies