Threat Matrix: Arakan Army (AA) vs. Bangladesh National Security

Reading Time: 3 minutes Assessment Date: April 2025Compiled for: MoD, DGFI, BGB, Armed Forces DivisionClassification: RESTRICTED (For Internal Military Planning) 🧠 Strategic Context The Arakan Army has grown from a regional insurgent force into a proto-state actor with an expanding area of influence across northern Rakhine and the Paletwa corridor, directly bordering southeastern Bangladesh (notably Bandarban and the Naikhongchhari–Ghumdhum axis). They are well-organized, have battlefield momentum, and operate within 5–10 km of the Bangladesh–Myanmar border in many areas. While not overtly hostile toward Bangladesh, their operations pose both indirect and emerging direct threats. ⚠️ Threat Matrix Overview Threat DomainLevelDetailsBorder Security (Bandarban–Cox’s Bazar)⚠️ Moderate–HighCross-border spillover risk due to combat near Paletwa and Buthidaung. Possible refugee surges, infiltration, or accidental fire exchange with BGB.Militant Collusion / Safe Haven⚠️ ModerateRisk of AA aligning or indirectly tolerating cross-border militant traffic (e.g., Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army – ARSA, Rohingya militant cells, etc.).Intelligence Surveillance Risk (SIGINT/ISR)⚠️