Rohingya Crisis: Bangladesh Must Guard Against Geopolitical Manipulation

As the Rohingya crisis grinds into its seventh year, a dangerous new narrative is quietly gaining ground in international discourse, one that risks destabilising the region further and placing Bangladesh in an increasingly precarious geopolitical position. What began as a legitimate humanitarian concern is now being reshaped by external forces, particularly Western governments and their associated NGOs, think tanks, and media outlets, into a counter-terrorism issue. The implications of this shift are far-reaching and deeply problematic.

Under the emerging narrative, the entire Rohingya population numbering over a million in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar refugee camps is at risk of being painted with the same brush as militant factions such as ARSA (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army) and RSO (Rohingya Solidarity Organisation). This conflation is both unfair and dangerous. While these groups have undoubtedly carried out violent activities, the vast majority of Rohingya remain stateless victims of systemic persecution and displacement.

What is more alarming is the growing international support for the Arakan Army, an ethno-nationalist armed group in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. This group has increasingly become the West’s preferred proxy in its efforts to pressure the Myanmar junta, especially since the military coup of 2021. The framing is subtle but clear: in order to counter the “threat” of Rohingya militancy, groups like the Arakan Army are being legitimised under the guise of democratic resistance and ethno-nationalist self-determination.

This approach carries the distinct stench of a broader balkanisation strategy, which is a well-worn playbook where internal ethnic fissures are exploited by foreign powers to weaken or fragment states deemed geopolitically inconvenient. In Myanmar’s case, the Tatmadaw and the current junta government are obvious targets. However, a fragmented Myanmar would likely not benefit Bangladesh; on the contrary, it could open the floodgates to a host of new security dilemmas.

A weakened or semi-autonomous Rakhine State, under Arakan Army control and potentially backed by major Western or regional powers, would be a deeply unstable neighbour. It could become a conduit for greater foreign military and intelligence presence right at Bangladesh’s south-eastern doorstep. In such a scenario, the Rohingya issue would no longer be a humanitarian crisis but a multi-dimensional security threat, shaped by external interests rather than regional stability.

Bangladesh has so far managed the Rohingya crisis with considerable restraint and generosity. However, it cannot remain blind to the evolving geopolitical dimensions. Dhaka must push for repatriation in a way that ensures regional sovereignty is respected and avoids becoming entangled in proxy conflicts. Furthermore, it must remain alert to the narrative warfare being waged under the cloak of counter-terrorism and humanitarianism.

If Bangladesh fails to act decisively, it risks being caught in the crossfire of a slow-burning conflict that could reshape the strategic contours of the region not in its favour.