Operational Capability Degradation – Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw)

Reading Time: 2 minutes As of early 2025, the Myanmar Armed Forces (Tatmadaw) are experiencing significant degradation in their operational effectiveness across nearly all regions of the country. This deterioration is the result of sustained offensives by ethnic armed organisations (EAOs), widespread resistance by the National Unity Government (NUG)-aligned People’s Defence Forces (PDFs), mass desertions, growing international isolation, and a collapsing logistical and economic infrastructure. The once centrally commanded and relatively coherent military structure is now severely overstretched, with units across multiple fronts suffering from diminished morale, equipment shortages, and command breakdowns. In several key regions—particularly Rakhine, Chin, Sagaing, and Kayah—the Tatmadaw is either combat-ineffective or on the verge of total collapse, with entire townships and supply corridors falling out of government control. Ethnic resistance groups such as the Arakan Army, Kachin Independence Army, and Karenni Defence Forces have evolved from guerrilla actors into capable regional powers, fielding heavy weapons