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Strategic Estimate: Future Threat Potential of the Arakan Army to Bangladesh
Reading Time: 3 minutes 1. Executive Summary The Arakan Army (AA) currently poses no significant military threat to Bangladesh. Its structural limitations, political objectives, and external dependencies mitigate any future hostile posture. However, political frictions could emerge related to refugee repatriation and cross-border governance issues. Bangladesh must maintain strong military readiness, initiate structured engagement with the AA, and prepare contingency plans to neutralise any emergent threats. 2. Background The collapse of Myanmar’s central authority has resulted in the Arakan Army gaining effective control over approximately 90% of Rakhine State. Myanmar’s junta forces now maintain only limited strongholds around fortified urban areas. Consequently, for all intents and purposes, Bangladesh and the Myanmar junta no longer share a direct border. This situation creates a de facto “Rakhine buffer state” along Bangladesh’s south-eastern frontier. While advantageous to Bangladesh’s immediate security interests, the longer-term implications require careful analysis. 3. Strategic Context Bangladesh Armed Forces:
