Assessment of Active Non-State Armed Groups in Rakhine State

Reading Time: 2 minutes Group NameAffiliation/IdeologyStrengthAreas of OperationCapabilitiesExternal LinksIntentions/ObjectivesRisks/ConcernsArakan Army (AA)Ethno-nationalist; Rakhine self-determination under ULA (United League of Arakan)Estimated 20,000–30,000 fightersNorthern and central Rakhine; parts of Chin and PaletwaWell-trained infantry, guerrilla tactics, rudimentary artillery, limited dronesAlleged covert ties with China-linked networks; limited black market arms accessEstablish autonomous or independent Arakan stateStrongest group; potential state-builder but poses risk of ethnic exclusion and conflict with Rohingya populationArakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)Islamist-tinged Rohingya nationalist<1,000 (fragmented cells)Maungdaw–Buthidaung corridor near Bangladesh borderLight arms, hit-and-run tactics, occasional IEDsReported diaspora funding; past ties to foreign jihadist sympathisersProtect and represent Rohingya population; retaliatory attacks on Rakhine groupsExtremely limited operational capacity; potential spoiler of AA-Rohingya peace effortsRohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO)Rohingya nationalist, secular-leaningUnknown (likely <500)Border areas (occasionally from Bangladeshi side)Light weapons, minimal mobilityDiaspora-linked; minor ties with older militant networksReclaim political space for Rohingyas in ArakanCurrently inactive militarily, but could resurface if ARSA is weakenedArakan National Council (ANC) or Arakan Liberation