Military Analysis: India’s Strategic Vulnerabilities From Pakistan’s Retaliation

India, with one of the world’s largest armed forces and an increasingly modernised military, maintains a commanding position in South Asia. However, even a military of this scale possesses inherent vulnerabilities—particularly those stemming from geography, operational posture, and the evolving nature of modern warfare. In light of a hypothetical conflict such as Operation Sindoor, where India might initiate offensive action across the border, it is pertinent to assess which Indian military and strategic assets could be vulnerable to Pakistani retaliation.

1. Proximity Risk of Forward Air Bases

India’s forward air bases (FABs), particularly those located in Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir, are highly exposed in the event of a retaliatory strike. Bases such as Pathankot, Adampur, and Srinagar lie within a 150–250 km radius of the Pakistan border. These bases house advanced platforms such as the Su-30MKI and Rafale, forming the spearhead of India’s offensive air doctrine.

Despite hardened shelters and multi-tier air defences, these bases remain vulnerable to Pakistani standoff weapons, such as the Ra’ad air-launched cruise missile, GLSDBs, and drones deployed from JF-17 or J-10CE platforms. Saturation attacks or combined drone and missile salvos could degrade IAF operational capacity and delay sortie generation.

Military implication: India’s forward bases require 24/7 Combat Air Patrols, robust radar coverage, and rapid damage-control units to maintain operational resilience under pressure.

2. Command and Control Vulnerabilities in Jammu & Kashmir

The Indian Army’s Northern Command Headquarters in Udhampur and Nagrota cantonment near Jammu represent key operational and logistical hubs for India’s deployments along the Line of Control (LoC). These are fixed, high-value targets that have previously come under insurgent attacks—raising questions about their vulnerability in a state-on-state war.

Precision strikes, electronic warfare, or commando-style raids could severely disrupt India’s command continuity in the northern theatre. While India has invested in redundancy and hardened structures, the psychological impact of attacks on these centres could be significant.

Military implication: Ensuring continuity of command through decentralisation and mobile command posts will be crucial in any future escalation.

3. Critical Infrastructure and Mobility Corridors

India’s reliance on a few arterial routes, such as the Jammu–Srinagar Highway and the Akhnoor Bridge, makes its logistical network susceptible to disruption. These arteries are essential for troop reinforcement and supply movement in Jammu & Kashmir.

Precision interdiction of such routes—either through missile strikes or sabotage—could delay Indian ground responses and create operational chokepoints, particularly during winter when alternate routes are limited.

Military implication: Greater investment in redundant logistics networks, hardened supply corridors, and rapid engineer units is essential.

4. Defence Production Facilities and Industrial Clusters

While located deeper within the interior, Indian defence production hubs such as HAL Nasik, Ordnance Factory Ambajhari, and BEL Chandigarh form the backbone of India’s long-term warfighting capability. In a prolonged conflict, Pakistan may seek to degrade these facilities using cruise missiles or cyber-attacks, thereby disrupting India’s supply chain for aircraft, munitions, and electronic systems.

Military implication: Defence industrial security must now extend to cyber resilience, counter-drone measures, and layered air defences even in peacetime.

5. Naval Installations and Maritime Deterrence

Installations like INS Shikra (Mumbai) and INS Hansa (Goa) house key aviation and maritime assets. While not frontline targets, they represent strategic depth and are critical in deterring wider escalation. Any successful strike on these locations would not only degrade India’s maritime readiness but could also carry enormous symbolic and economic weight, especially near Mumbai.

Military implication: Dispersal and mobility of naval assets, along with decoy strategies, are necessary to prevent asymmetric escalation.

6. Nuclear and Strategic Deterrent Infrastructure

Facilities such as the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Mumbai and Rawatbhata nuclear complex in Rajasthan are unlikely to be targeted due to the catastrophic risks involved. However, in strategic theory, they represent the ultimate red lines and therefore require the highest tier of protection.

India’s S-400 Triumf systems, Barak-8 SAMs, and Spyder batteries offer a robust multi-layered air defence grid. But as seen in recent conflicts worldwide, no air defence system is entirely impregnable, particularly when faced with low-cost saturation attacks or stealthy cruise missiles.

Military implication: India must continuously modernise its detection, interception, and electronic warfare capabilities to prevent strategic surprise.

Conclusion

India’s military superiority in South Asia is tempered by the reality that even a strong military has soft points. In a hypothetical retaliatory scenario involving Pakistan, India’s forward airbases, command centres, and logistical routes are its most immediate vulnerabilities. Simultaneously, its deeper industrial and naval facilities form part of a broader deterrent architecture that must be defended with equal rigour.

Ultimately, strategic resilience will depend not only on the strength of India’s armed forces but also on its preparedness, dispersal, deception, and redundancy. Modern warfare is no longer about brute strength alone—it is about survivability, adaptability, and information superiority.

References

1. Indian Express (2016). Nagrota: Why It Is a Strategically Important Garrison Town. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/nagrota-soldiers-killedmilitants-is-a-strategically-garrison-town-4402468
2. IJFMR (2025). The Strategic Role of Indian Air Bases. https://www.ijfmr.com/papers/2025/2/39636.pdf
3. Wikipedia. INS Shikra and INS Hansa pages. https://en.wikipedia.org
4. PIB India (2024). Department of Atomic Energy Review. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2087501

Note: This report is for academic and research purposes only and does not endorse or suggest any military action.