Arakan Army Nears Capture of Key Nat Yay Kan Air Defence Base

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The Arakan Army (AA) and its allied resistance forces are on the verge of capturing the Nat Yay Kan Air Defence Base in Ngape Township, Magwe Region, after overrunning nearly all forward outposts defending the hilltop stronghold, according to multiple frontline sources.

Earlier this month, the AA seized the Gokkyi supply post, located just three kilometres north of Nat Yay Kan. The post, defended by around 100 junta troops, had served as a key logistical lifeline providing food, ammunition and reinforcements to the main air defence base. Nat Yay Kan itself sits atop a 1,587-metre mountain roughly 12 kilometres from Ordnance Factory (KaPaSa) No. 14 — one of the Myanmar military’s most important arms-production facilities, with production lines for missile components, electronics (PCB, radar), and general ordnance.

Reports indicate that over 500 junta troops had been stationed at the base, which also serves as a major artillery and radar installation. However, after days of intense fighting, only one hilltop position reportedly remains under junta control. “They haven’t lost the entire base yet, but most of it has fallen. Only one position remains, where troops are entrenched in bunkers under continuous airstrikes,” said a local resistance source quoted by The Irrawaddy.

The junta garrison, now surrounded and cut off for more than ten days, is said to be “starving and low on water.” Despite limited air-dropped resupplies, the position appears untenable. AA units have completely encircled the area, tightening the siege and blocking any ground reinforcements from Padan, located just 16 kilometres away.

Padan is home to Artillery Battalion Headquarters 905, several artillery units, and the KaPaSa 14 munitions plant. The fall of Nat Yay Kan would place these facilities directly within range of AA-led forces. Analysts warn that this would cripple the junta’s ability to project power westward toward Ann and Rakhine State and threaten its network of arms factories along the strategic Pathein-Monywa highway.

Strategic Proximity to Bangladesh

Nat Yay Kan lies approximately 270 kilometres northeast of Cox’s Bazar, placing it within a region of increasing concern for Bangladesh’s defence planners. Should the Arakan Army consolidate its control over Magwe and extend its reach toward central Myanmar, the military balance along the Myanmar–Bangladesh frontier could shift dramatically.

For the Bangladesh Air Force (BAF), the evolving situation has both operational and strategic implications. The weakening of the Myanmar Air Force (MAF) in western Myanmar — particularly its loss of air defence sites such as Nat Yay Kan — could reduce the MAF’s capacity to conduct sustained operations near the Rakhine and Chin border regions. This, in turn, enhances BAF’s operational freedom and surveillance advantage over the Bay of Bengal and the Arakan coastline.

Broader Conflict Dynamics

The AA, which now controls 14 of Rakhine’s 17 townships, has been advancing eastward into central Myanmar in cooperation with local resistance groups. Fighting has already spread into Magwe’s Padan Township, Bago’s Padaung Township, and parts of the Ayeyarwady Region, where several munitions factories lie along the Irrawaddy River’s western bank.

If Nat Yay Kan falls, it will mark one of the most significant strategic defeats for the junta since the fall of Ann in December, when the AA captured the regime’s Western Command headquarters. The loss would effectively break the junta’s last defensive line between Rakhine and central Myanmar — opening the door to deeper resistance penetration toward the country’s industrial heartland.

For Bangladesh, located less than an hour’s flight from the contested zone, developments at Nat Yay Kan warrant close monitoring. The outcome will likely redefine air defence posturing and influence future contingency planning for both the Bangladesh and Myanmar air forces along the western theatre of the Bay of Bengal.

Myanmar Defence Industries (KaPaSa)

KaPaSa / DI No.	Location (Township / Region)	Reported Product Types	Operational Status (per SAC-M & later analysis)
KaPaSa 1	Tatkone, Nay Pyi Taw	Administration & small arms production	Active
KaPaSa 2	Myaing, Magway Region	Mortars, RPGs, artillery shells	Active
KaPaSa 3	Sinde, Bago Region	Ammunition, fuses	Active
KaPaSa 4	Tatkone, Nay Pyi Taw	Explosives filling & processing	Active
KaPaSa 5	Kamyaing, Bago Region	Small arms, ammunition components	Active
KaPaSa 6	Nyaung Chidauk, Bago Region	Maintenance, training, small arms assembly	Active (Training role)
KaPaSa 7	Kyaw Swar, Bago Region	Small arms & rifle parts	Active
KaPaSa 8	Ma Kyee Pin Pu, Mandalay Region	Ammunition & components	Active
KaPaSa 9	Okshitpin, Bago Region	Artillery shell filling & assembly	Active
KaPaSa 10	Mya Lan, Magway Region	MLRS rockets, propellant casting	Active; sensitive (missile-related)
KaPaSa 11	Taikkyi, Yangon Region	Storage, logistics, maintenance	Active
KaPaSa 12	Thayet, Magway Region	Ammunition, artillery shells	Active
KaPaSa 13	Let Pan, Magway Region	Ammunition assembly & fuses	Active
KaPaSa 14	Ngape / Padan, Magway Region	Missile components, electronics (PCB, radar), general ordnance	Active; high-value site
KaPaSa 15	Meiktila, Mandalay Region	Vehicle & armour components	Active
KaPaSa 16	Ma Thon, Mandalay Region	Ammunition	Active
KaPaSa 17	Unknown (Central Myanmar)	Propellants / explosives	Possibly limited activity
KaPaSa 18	Central Myanmar (unspecified)	Chemical materials	Unclear
KaPaSa 19	Pyin Ma Ai, Bago Region	Ammunition & shell production	Active
KaPaSa 20	Ngape, Magway Region	Ammunition & artillery	Active
KaPaSa 21	Seikphyu, Magway Region	Aerial bombs, general munitions	Active
KaPaSa 22	Magway (valley site)	Small arms, propellants	Active
KaPaSa 23	Lin Taung, Magway Region	Explosives chemicals	Under construction (2023)
KaPaSa 24	Kanthet, Magway Region	Component production	Under construction
KaPaSa 25	Laungshae, Magway Region	Resource extraction / raw materials	Under construction

Notes

• The Magway cluster (KaPaSa 2, 10, 12–14, 20–25) forms the core of Myanmar’s heavy ordnance industry, supplying artillery, aerial bombs, and rockets.
• Bago Region hosts several small-arms and training factories (KaPaSa 3–7, 9, 19), supporting ammunition production.
• Nay Pyi Taw (KaPaSa 1, 4) functions as the administrative and assembly hub.
• Yangon / Taikkyi (KaPaSa 11) manages logistics and long-term storage.
• KaPaSa 10, 14, and 22 are identified by SAC-M and Western intelligence analysts as the most technologically sensitive, housing solid-propellant and electronics production.
• As of 2023, 22 out of 25 factories are confirmed operational; 3 remain under construction or expansion.