India-Pakistan Ceasefire: Conflict Summary and Strategic Assessment

Introduction: Why the Conflict Escalated

The May 2025 conflict between India and Pakistan stemmed from deepening mistrust and persistent hostilities over Kashmir. Tensions peaked after a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, on 22 April 2025, killing 26 civilians, including foreign tourists. India directly blamed Pakistan-based militant groups and vowed retaliation. This triggered a rapid military and strategic escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, with global powers urgently calling for restraint.

“The Kashmir dispute remains a trigger point. What we witnessed in May 2025 was a scenario long warned about by strategic experts” (Rashid, 2025).

During the May 2025 India–Pakistan conflict, both nations launched named military operations in response to escalating tensions following a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. Below is a detailed overview of these operations:

India: Operation Sindoor

• Date Initiated: 7 May 2025
• Objective: In retaliation for the 22 April 2025 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, which resulted in 26 civilian deaths, India launched Operation Sindoor targeting alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
• Execution: The operation involved coordinated missile and air strikes by the Indian Air Force, utilising Rafale jets equipped with SCALP cruise missiles and Hammer bombs.
• Targets: Nine locations were targeted, including Bahawalpur, Muridke, Gulpur, Bhimber, Chak Amru, Bagh, Kotli, Sialkot, and Muzaffarabad.
• Outcome: India claimed the elimination of over 100 militants, including close aides and family members of Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar. (Jurishour, Wikipedia)

Pakistan: Operation Bunyan Ul Marsoos

• Date Initiated: 8 May 2025
• Objective: As a countermeasure to Operation Sindoor, Pakistan launched Operation Bunyan Ul Marsoos aiming to retaliate against Indian military actions.
• Execution: The operation comprised missile and drone strikes targeting Indian military installations, including airbases and radar sites.
• Targets: Over 12 airbases were targeted, as well as 35 plus military installations, BOPs, and urban centres of Western India such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Jammu & Kashmir.
• Outcome: Pakistan reported the destruction of multiple Indian military targets and the downing of several Indian aircraft, including Rafale jets.

Chronology of Events

Date	Event
22 April 2025	A terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians, including tourists. The group Kashmir Resistance claimed responsibility. India accused Pakistan of backing the attackers, leading to a significant breakdown in relations not seen since 2019.
24 April – 6 May 2025	Both nations engaged in heavy skirmishes, including cross-border firing and artillery shelling along the Line of Control (LoC). These exchanges intensified tensions and led to civilian evacuations and school closures in border areas.
7 May 2025	India launched “Operation Sindoor,” conducting missile strikes on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir. The operation targeted nine sites, including Bahawalpur, Muridke, Gulpur, Bhimber, Chak Amru, Bagh, Kotli, Sialkot, and Muzaffarabad, aiming to dismantle infrastructure used by militant groups.
9 May 2025	Pakistan announced “Operation Bunyan Ul Marsoos,” launching missile and drone strikes on 25 military targets across Indian states and Indian-administered Kashmir, including airbases and radar sites, in retaliation for India’s Operation Sindoor. Intense aerial engagements occurred, with over 100 fighter jets from both nations reportedly involved in dogfights. Both sides reported casualties and damage to military infrastructure.
10 May 2025	Following diplomatic efforts, particularly by the United States, India and Pakistan agreed to a “full and immediate ceasefire.” The agreement aimed to halt further military escalation and initiate dialogue to address underlying issues.

Table of Losses

Category	India	Pakistan
Military Killed	~35 (Army, IAF personnel)	~22 (Army, PAF personnel)
Civilian Casualties	26 (Pahalgam attack), 18 in retaliatory shelling	31 civilians killed, 58 injured
Aircraft Lost	5 (incl. 3 Rafale, 1 Su-30MKI, 1 MiG-29UPG, 77+ drones)	2 YIHA-III UAVs confirmed lost
Air Defence Systems	1 S-400 battery partially destroyed	2 SAM sites damaged
Infrastructure Damage	12 airfields damaged (Pathankot, Jammu, Srinagar)	Military logistics depots, border outposts hit
Economic Cost (Est.)	$1.8 billion	$1.1 billion

Sources: TBS News, 2025, AP News, 2025, The Guardian, 2025

Outcome & Strategic Repercussions

The ceasefire, brokered primarily through U.S. diplomatic channels, halted a full-scale war. However, the political fallout continues:

• India faces internal criticism over military preparedness and air defence gaps.
• Pakistan has gained regional prestige for tactical success and deterrence.
• Global powers emphasised the urgent need for sustained diplomatic engagement on Kashmir.

This incident has accelerated interest in:

• Joint military exercises with third-party powers
• Defence modernisation in both countries
• Renewed calls for track-II diplomacy and regional arms control mechanisms

Tactical Lessons Learned

Observation	Implication
S-400 vulnerability to saturation drone attacks	Highlights the need for layered air defence and electronic warfare integration.
Precision strikes by Pakistani missile forces	Validated long-range strike doctrines using Babur cruise missiles.
UAV warfare dominated the conflict	Marks the transition to AI-assisted drone combat and anti-UAV strategies.
Media disinformation & psychological warfare	Both nations leveraged cyber tools for narrative control—raising alarm over information warfare.

Looking Forward

• Diplomatic Channels: Both nations have reopened DGMO-level dialogue.
• Regional Posturing: Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Gulf states are reassessing regional defence ties.
• Defence Industry Boom: Pakistan’s proven systems may attract new buyers in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.

“The May 2025 conflict may not have ended in territorial change, but it changed the strategic map of South Asia” (Ahmed, 2025).

References

Ahmed, F. (2025). Regional Ramifications of the May Conflict. Islamabad: ISSI.

Rashid, M. (2025). ‘India–Pakistan Military Escalation: Causes and Consequences’, South Asia Strategic Review, 34(2), pp. 56–70.

TBS News. (2025). Trump says India and Pakistan have agreed to ceasefire. [online] Available at: https://www.tbsnews.net/world/trump-says-india-and-pakistan-have-agreed-ceasefire-1138881 [Accessed 10 May 2025].

TBS News. (2025). Pakistan foreign minister confirms ceasefire with India. [online] Available at: https://www.tbsnews.net/world/south-asia/pakistan-foreign-minister-confirms-ceasefire-india-1138916 [Accessed 10 May 2025].

The Guardian. (2025). India-Pakistan military reprisals escalate: what we know so far. [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/10/india-pakistan-military-reprisals-escalate-what-we-know-so-far [Accessed 10 May 2025].

AP News. (2025). India and Pakistan confirm ceasefire deal following US mediation. [online] Available at: https://apnews.com/article/1e25123fb9b13be4accc9cac0fe670d3 [Accessed 10 May 2025].